Catastrophy in the White House
What happened yesterday in the White House was nothing short of a disaster. The meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, and J.D. Vance quickly devolved from a staged photo-op into something resembling an episode of Dr. Phil.
Even without hearing a single word, anyone watching could see that this was going off the rails.
The Exchange
Before assigning blame, I recommend setting aside 50 minutes to watch the full exchange here. The mainstream media is already filled with smaller snippets of the meeting that does not give the full picture.
What Happens Now?
Both Zelensky and Trump/Vance played their hands poorly, but in the end, it will be the Ukrainian people who pay the price so the stakes are ultimately higher for Zelensky.
Trump approached the discussion with a clear sequencing for a peace deal:
Mineral deal
Ceasefire/peace
Security guarantee
This order would secure american investments and involvement in Ukraine without military intervention. This in itself is a soft security guarantee as Washington would hardly tolerate American lives at stake upon escalation.
The fundamental issue? Zelensky’s priorities are the exact opposite. When he pushed too hard on security guarantees upfront, J.D. Vance took the bait, and the situation escalated unnecessarily on both sides.
Watching Senator Lindsey Graham, an outspoken Ukraine supporter, bashing Zelensky’s appearance, my guess is that the American attitude towards the conflict has shifted rapidly.
This leaves Zelensky with limited manoeuvrability and he will be 100% dependent on European support moving forward.
European leaders have already voiced their continued support but the question remains if their motivation will be as granular if the Americans pull out entirely.